# Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?". North Carolina leads at 3.6%. Next is Mississippi at 3.5%. $77K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T15:45:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $77K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| North Carolina | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Mississippi | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| South Carolina | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| New Jersey | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Hawaii | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Alabama | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Georgia | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Maryland | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| New Hampshire | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Rhode Island | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Virginia | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| New York | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Connecticut | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| Delaware | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Maine | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Louisiana | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Massachusetts | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Texas | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Yes | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [nhc.noaa.gov](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [National Hurricane Center of the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://nhc.noaa.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-a-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-tampa-before-dec-1-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhurcitytpa?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-a-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-tampa-before-dec-1-2026

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.