# Will a Democrat win a Solid Republican House district?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will a Democrat win a Solid Republican House district?". Yes leads at 95.3%. $4K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:03:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 95.3% | 94.9% | 96% | 1.1 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://nytimes.com), [The Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-a-democrat-win-a-solid-republican-house-district
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-any-solid-republican-house-race?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdemsolidr?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-a-democrat-win-a-solid-republican-house-district

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.