# Will Apple release a new product line before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Apple release a new product line before 2028?". Yes leads at 69%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T20:43:41Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 69% | 69% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple launches a new product line between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is an Apple-branded hardware product that establishes a distinct product category based on its functionality and intended use. A new name alone is insufficient, and reuse of a previous product name does not disqualify an otherwise qualifying product.

New models, sizes, generations, editions, or renamed versions of an existing product family will not qualify solely because they introduce a new design, form factor, feature, or name. However, a product may qualify if its functionality and intended use establish a distinct product category, even if it shares features, technology, or branding with an existing Apple product. Products Apple has sold before market creation, including HomeView, and subsequent updates to those products will not qualify unless those updates independently meet the criteria for a new product line.

For example, the original Apple Vision Pro and HomeView launches constituted new product lines; iPhone Air and AirPods Pro 3 did not.

Software, services, accessories (e.g., cases, chargers, keyboards, or Apple Pencil), and Beats-branded products will not qualify. An accessory is hardware whose primary purpose is to support, control, or extend the functionality of another product, rather than perform a distinct primary function of its own. Compatibility with, or a setup requirement involving, another device does not alone make a product an accessory.

A product is considered launched when it becomes officially available to public customers, through delivery or physical purchase.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Apple, including Apple Newsroom and the Apple Store; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-before-2028?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.