# Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?". 5-7 leads at 40.6%. Next is 5 at 33.9%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:22:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 5-7 | 40.6% | 43% |
| 5 | 33.9% | 36% |
| 8-10 | 15.1% | 16% |
| 11-13 | 8.1% | 8.6% |
| 14+ | 2.3% | 2.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days in November 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.