# Will core CPI be above headline CPI in October?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will core CPI be above headline CPI in October?". 2.6% leads at 91%. Next is 0.2% at 44%. $56K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:07:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $56K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2.6% | 91% | 91% | — | not on both |
| 0.2% | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| 0.3% | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.4% | 8% | 8% | — | not on both |
| 0.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| In October 2026 | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| 2.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | — | not on both |
| 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| 0.6%+ | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-core-cpi-be-above-headline-cpi-in-october
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-mom-october-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpicoreheadmom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-core-cpi-be-above-headline-cpi-in-october

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.