# Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?". December 31, 2027 leads at 34.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 19.5%. $88K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:49:03Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jul 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $88K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31, 2027 | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| June 30, 2027 | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 15.5% | — | 15.5% | not on both |
| March 31, 2027 | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Yes | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| November 30, 2026 | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [official government sources of Brazil](https://www.gov.br/), [official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives](https://x.com/FlavioBolsonaro), [local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Brazil](https://g1.globo.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-flávio-bolsonaro-return-to-brazil
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-returns-to-brazil-by-20261028?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflaviobrazil?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-flávio-bolsonaro-return-to-brazil

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.