# Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?". Yes leads at 3%. $6K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:05:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 3% | 3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Minnesota's 5th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify.

If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. An announcement that she will not seek re-election, or that she is ending her 2026 campaign, will not qualify on its own.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilhan Omar or the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-ilhan-omar-resign-by-december-31-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ilhan-omar-resign-by-december-31-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-ilhan-omar-resign-by-december-31-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.