# Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?". Before Aug 1, 2028 leads at 74%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:12:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Aug 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 74% | 74% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-scotus-allow-first-step-act-halfway-house-claims-under-2241
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxscotuscase?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-scotus-allow-first-step-act-halfway-house-claims-under-2241

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.