# Will Soneium launch a token by ___?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Soneium launch a token by ___?". December 31, 2027 leads at 71.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 38%. $101K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:58:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $101K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: crypto

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31, 2027 | 71.5% | 71.5% | — | not on both |
| June 30, 2027 | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| March 31, 2027 | 35.5% | 35.5% | — | not on both |
| December 31, 2026 | 23.5% | 23.5% | — | not on both |
| Exponent | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Ostium | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| OpenSea | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Fomo | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Arc | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| CME Group | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| MetaMask | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Abstract | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Phantom | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Base | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Felix | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Rabby | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Tempo | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Unit | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [project](https://kalshi.com/), [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/), [CoinTelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Soneium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only an official token launched by Soneium after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.

The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Soneium (https://x.com/soneium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-soneium-launch-a-token-by-
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-soneium-launch-a-token-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtokenlaunch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-soneium-launch-a-token-by-

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.