# Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?: prediction market odds

> Final prediction market prices for "Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?". $7K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 31, 2026.

- Status: Trading has ended; prices are final
- Prices updated: unknown
- Closed: Dec 31, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Any fire on the Gävle Goat’s main structure will qualify, regardless of the extent of the damage or whether the goat remains standing; attempts that do not ignite the goat will not qualify. If the Gävle Goat is destroyed by other means, this will not qualify.

The fire must be confirmed by an official Gävle Goat social media account, the City of Gävle’s official website, or a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-the-gävle-goat-burn-in-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-gavle-goat-burn-in-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-the-gävle-goat-burn-in-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.