# Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?". December 31 leads at 75%. Next is Yair Lapid at 52%. $18K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:05:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $18K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 75% | 75% | — | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| November 30 | 48.5% | 48.5% | — | not on both |
| November 13 | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Elazar Stern | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Chili Tropper | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Oded Forer | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Orit Farkash Hacohen | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Amir Ohana | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Matan Kahana | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Gilad Kariv | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Merav Ben Ari | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ram Ben-Barak | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Yair Golan | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Boaz Bismuth | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Meirav Cohen | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Vladimir Beliak | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Ofir Katz | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| November 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Knesset](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-the-knesset-elect-a-new-speaker-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-knesset-elect-a-new-speaker-by-december-31-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrspeaker?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-the-knesset-elect-a-new-speaker-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.