# Will the Worlds 2026 champion be a first-time Worlds winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will the Worlds 2026 champion be a first-time Worlds winner?". Yes leads at 25.5%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 15, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:09:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 15, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 25.5% | 25.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [lolesports.com](https://lolesports.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the team that wins the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026), currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026, has never won the League of Legends World Championship before. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A team is a previous Worlds winner if its organization won any League of Legends World Championship from 2011 to 2025, including under a previous name. Among the teams in the Worlds 2026 field, the previous winners are T1 (2013, 2015, and 2016 as SK Telecom T1; 2023, 2024, and 2025 as T1), Gen.G (2017 as Samsung Galaxy), Dplus KIA (2020 as DAMWON Gaming), and Invictus Gaming (2018). If any of these four teams wins Worlds 2026, this market will resolve to "No". If any other team wins Worlds 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Previous titles won by individual players do not matter.

If the winner of Worlds 2026 is not determined by December 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the tournament is canceled or postponed past that date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games, via the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/World_Championship/2026) may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-the-worlds-2026-champion-be-a-first-time-worlds-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-worlds-2026-champion-be-a-first-time-worlds-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-the-worlds-2026-champion-be-a-first-time-worlds-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.