# Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?". Yes leads at 4%. $2K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T15:43:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 4% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released during the calendar days (China Standard Time) of the visit to qualify.

A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug.

Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory.

This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) that Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the visit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/will-trump-and-xi-hug-at-apec
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-xi-hug-at-apec?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/will-trump-and-xi-hug-at-apec

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.