# World Happiness Report 2027: 1st place: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "World Happiness Report 2027: 1st place". Finland leads at 94.9%. Next is Netherlands at 1.5%. $9K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:17:41Z (17 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $9K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Finland | 94.9% | 91.5% |
| Netherlands | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Costa Rica | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Denmark | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Iceland | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Israel | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Norway | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Sweden | 0.6% | 0.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [worldhappiness.report](https://worldhappiness.report/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the country that finishes in 1st place in the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)").

The World Happiness Report 2027 is expected to be published in March 2027.

Countries will be ranked according to their published rank in the World Happiness Report 2027. If two or more countries share the same published rank, they will be ranked by their life evaluation score (the average Cantril ladder score) as published in the report, with higher scores ranking higher. If they remain tied, they will be ranked in alphabetical order of their English names. This market will resolve to the country that occupies 1st place after applying this ranking.

If no World Happiness Report 2027 ranking is published by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Happiness Report (https://worldhappiness.report/); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/world-happiness-report-2027-1st-place
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/world-happiness-report-2027-1st-place?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/world-happiness-report-2027-1st-place

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.