# WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova". Aryna Sabalenka leads at 66%. Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 65.5%. $58K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T15:14:20Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $58K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 65.5% | 65.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 61% | 61% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 60% | 60% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 55% | 55% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 52% | 52% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 43.5% | 43.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 39.5% | 39.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Karolina Muchova | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [wtatennis.com](https://www.wtatennis.com/scores).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova in the WTA Finals, Group B, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 3:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Karolina Muchova.

This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Aryna Sabalenka.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/wta-finals-group-b-aryna-sabalenka-vs-karolina-muchova
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/wta-sabalen-muchova-2026-11-09?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwtamatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/wta-finals-group-b-aryna-sabalenka-vs-karolina-muchova

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.