# Yorkton—Melville By-Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Yorkton—Melville By-Election Winner". Nelson Pohl leads at 90.3%. Next is Aaron Kienle at 6.6%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:06:00Z (5 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Nelson Pohl | 90.3% | 89% |
| Aaron Kienle | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Michaela Krakowetz | 3.1% | 3.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Yorkton—Melville is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Yorkton—Melville by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/yorktonmelville-by-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/yorktonmelville-by-election-winner-1793634154133?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/yorktonmelville-by-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.