Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before 2030
$20K volume
54.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2030 (3y 271d)Updated 7m ago
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
Live prediction market odds for "8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?". Before 2030 is leading at 54.0%. Total volume is $20K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Leading Outcome
Before 2030
54.0%
Total Vol
$20K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?". Before 2030 is leading at 54.0%. Total volume is $20K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2030.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
10%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 2 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
10%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
2
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
10%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
9759h
Sources
2
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
10%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
9759h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
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