Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before 2030
$26K volume
6.9%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2030 (3y 271d)Updated 10m ago
Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
Live prediction market odds for "Will there be a year without polio before 2030?". Before 2030 is leading at 6.9%. Total volume is $26K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Leading Outcome
Before 2030
6.9%
Total Vol
$26K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will there be a year without polio before 2030?". Before 2030 is leading at 6.9%. Total volume is $26K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2030.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
5135h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
5135h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Breaking point: Government will fail on fracture services pledge without urgent action, medics warn - Daily Mail
Daily Mail·43d ago·neutral
Nigeria, WHO and Partners Reaffirm Commitment to End All Forms of Polio by 2030 - WHO | Regional Office for Africa
WHO | Regional Office for Africa·150d ago·neutral
Nigeria’s Commitment to Measles and Rubella Elimination by 2030 - WHO | Regional Office for Africa
WHO | Regional Office for Africa·150d ago·neutral
Promise to protect: will Pakistan end polio by 2030? - The Express Tribune
The Express Tribune·153d ago·neutral
2025 State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen - European Commission
European Commission·208d ago·neutral