Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
December 31
$679K volume
83.5%
—
June 30
$1.6M volume
59.5%
—
May 15
$2.0M volume
32.5%
—
April 30
$1.6M volume
16.5%
—
April 15
$2.3M volume
5.9%
—
April 7
$1.6M volume
0.7%
—
Live marketEnds Mar 15, 2026 (Ended)Updated 16m ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Live prediction market odds for "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?". December 31 is leading at 83.5%. The next most likely outcome is June 30 at 59.5%. Total volume is $15.0M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Mar 15, 2026.
Leading Outcome
December 31
83.5%
Total Vol
$15.0M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?". December 31 is leading at 83.5%. The next most likely outcome is June 30 at 59.5%. Total volume is $15.0M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Mar 15, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Mar 15, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 3 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
285h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
285h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Trump says Iran has 48 hours to make deal as search for US pilot continues - Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera·21h ago·neutral
U.S. Says It Struck 16 Iranian Mine-Laying Vessels Near Oil Route - nytimes.com
nytimes.com·2d ago·neutral
Iran’s War With Israel and the United States | Global Conflict Tracker - Council on Foreign Relations
Council on Foreign Relations·3d ago·neutral
Israel launches new strikes on Iran as Rubio says war could end 'in a matter of weeks' - PBS
PBS·9d ago·neutral
Here are Iran’s 5 conditions for ending war after rejecting US ceasefire plan
Bing News·11d ago·neutral
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