Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
December 31
$14.2M volume
99.9%
—
April 30
$58.2M volume
99.9%
—
Live marketEnds Mar 1, 2026 (Ended)Updated 6m ago
US forces enter Iran by..?
Live prediction market odds for "US forces enter Iran by..?". December 31 is leading at 99.9%. The next most likely outcome is April 30 at 99.9%. Total volume is $148.4M across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Mar 1, 2026.
Leading Outcome
December 31
99.9%
Total Vol
$148.4M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "US forces enter Iran by..?". December 31 is leading at 99.9%. The next most likely outcome is April 30 at 99.9%. Total volume is $148.4M across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Mar 1, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Mar 1, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
56%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.078 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
56%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
3.00x
Source Diversity
3
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
56%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
5h
Sources
3
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
56%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
5h
Avg Sentiment
+0.075
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
US market odds for ground troops entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86% - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·40m ago·bullish
Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid drone removal - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·40m ago·bullish
US pilot from downed F-15E plane rescued in Iran: What we know - Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera·1h ago·neutral
US forces’ rescue mission in Iran boosts market confidence for April 30 entry - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·3h ago·neutral
US ground troop odds in Iran rise to 86% after successful rescue mission - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·3h ago·neutral
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