Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
December 31
$1.2M volume
70.5%
—
June 30
$3.3M volume
48.5%
—
May 31
$3.9M volume
36.5%
—
April 30
$11.5M volume
22.5%
—
April 15
$13.2M volume
10.5%
—
April 7
$10.9M volume
2.9%
—
Live marketEnds Apr 7, 2026 (1d)Updated 13m ago
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Live prediction market odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by...?". December 31 is leading at 70.5%. The next most likely outcome is June 30 at 48.5%. Total volume is $91.9M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 7, 2026.
Leading Outcome
December 31
70.5%
Total Vol
$91.9M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by...?". December 31 is leading at 70.5%. The next most likely outcome is June 30 at 48.5%. Total volume is $91.9M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 7, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Apr 7, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
1
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2h
Sources
1
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Trump’s threat to seize Iranian oil sends ceasefire odds plummeting - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·14m ago·neutral
Trump claims Iran deal possible by tomorrow, but market remains skeptical - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·1h ago·neutral
Trump’s threat drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% for April 7 - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·1h ago·neutral
Trump claims US armed Iranian protesters, predicts deal with Iran by tomorrow - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·1h ago·neutral
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran lowers April ceasefire odds to 1% - Crypto Briefing
Crypto Briefing·2h ago·neutral
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