HomeCryptoUS trade deficit for 2026?
Live marketEnds Feb 28, 2027 (10mo)Updated 1m ago

US trade deficit for 2026?

Live prediction market odds for "US trade deficit for 2026?". Above 170‎ billion is leading at 91.0%. The next most likely outcome is 105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion at 6.0%. Total volume is $9K across 12 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Feb 28, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Above 170‎ billion
91.0%
Total Vol
$9K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Above 170‎ billion
$2K volume
91.0%
105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion
$763 volume
6.0%
120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion
$525 volume
6.0%
140‎ billion to 170‎ billion
$601 volume
5.0%
85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion
$1K volume
5.0%
55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion
$935 volume
3.0%
45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion
$679 volume
2.0%
65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion
$509 volume
2.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "US trade deficit for 2026?". Above 170‎ billion is leading at 91.0%. The next most likely outcome is 105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion at 6.0%. Total volume is $9K across 12 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Feb 28, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Feb 28, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

51%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.018 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
65h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
65h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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