Market comparison

US trade deficit for 2026?

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $25K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: May 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 28, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for US trade deficit for 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
1.1T+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.1% 1.1T+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1T–1.1T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.1% Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.0% 1T–1.1T Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% 45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% 75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% 85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% 105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% 119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
140‎ billion to 170‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% 140‎ billion to 170‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
500–600B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.3% 500–600B Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
500B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9% <500B Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
600–700B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.2% Bid 5.9% · Ask 14.4% 600–700B Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
700–800B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 27.0% 700–800B Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
800–900B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 62.0% 800–900B Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
900B–1T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 20.0% 900B–1T Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Above 170‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 96.0% Above 170‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—
Below 45‎ billion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Below 45‎ billion Open Kalshi ↗	—

1.1T+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.1%

1.1T+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1T–1.1T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.0%

1T–1.1T

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

140‎ billion to 170‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

140‎ billion to 170‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

500–600B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.3%

500–600B

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

500B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9%

<500B

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

600–700B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.2%

Bid 5.9% · Ask 14.4%

600–700B

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

700–800B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 27.0%

700–800B

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

800–900B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 62.0%

800–900B

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

900B–1T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 20.0%

900B–1T

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Above 170‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 96.0%

Above 170‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

Below 45‎ billion

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Below 45‎ billion

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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