Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Fed maintains rate
$14K volume
86.0%
—
Cut 25bps
$11K volume
14.0%
—
Hike >25bps
$3K volume
2.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jul 29, 2026 (3mo)Updated 7m ago
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
Live prediction market odds for "Fed decision in Jul 2026?". Fed maintains rate is leading at 86.0%. The next most likely outcome is Cut 25bps at 14.0%. Total volume is $31K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 29, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Fed maintains rate
86.0%
Total Vol
$31K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Fed decision in Jul 2026?". Fed maintains rate is leading at 86.0%. The next most likely outcome is Cut 25bps at 14.0%. Total volume is $31K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 29, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Jul 29, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
63%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.178 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 14 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
40%
Median Age
504h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
40%
Median Age
504h
Avg Sentiment
-0.100
Neutral %
60%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Federal Reserve Signals Fewer 2026 Rate Cuts as Tariff-Driven Inflation Keeps Prices Elevated - altitudesmagazine.com
altitudesmagazine.com·1d ago·bearish
U.S. federal funds rate 2026 - Statista
Statista·3d ago·neutral
Kalshi Promo Code GOALMAX: Get $10 for NBA Trading & Hawks vs Heat Markets - Goal.com
Goal.com·4d ago·neutral
CD Rate Forecast: Are CD Rates Going Up in 2026? - NerdWallet
NerdWallet·18d ago·neutral
When is the Fed's next meeting? See the full schedule for 2026. - Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance·20d ago·neutral
Related Economics Markets
Fed decision in March?
Lead 0.1% · 25+ bps increase
Vol $518.6M
Fed decision in April?
Lead 98.0% · No change
Vol $54.0M
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Lead 85.2% · Yes
Vol $21.0M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Lead 37.4% · 0 (0 bps)
Vol $16.4M
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Lead 99.0% · Fed maintains rate
Vol $9.9M
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Lead 30.8% · 3.75%
Vol $6.0M