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Live marketEnds Dec 9, 2026 (8mo)Updated 9m ago

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Live prediction market odds for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". 3.75% is leading at 30.1%. The next most likely outcome is 3.5% at 25.5%. Total volume is $6.0M across 15 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 9, 2026.

Leading Outcome
3.75%
30.1%
Total Vol
$6.0M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
3.75%
$492K volume
30.1%
—
3.5%
$57K volume
25.5%
—
3.25%
$39K volume
12.5%
—
4.5%
$2.4M volume
9.6%
—
4.0%
$1.3M volume
8.3%
—
2.75%
$24K volume
5.5%
—
3.0%
$431K volume
3.8%
—
2.5%
$126K volume
2.1%
—

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". 3.75% is leading at 30.1%. The next most likely outcome is 3.5% at 25.5%. Total volume is $6.0M across 15 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 9, 2026.

Expected resolution date: Dec 9, 2026.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

54%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.053 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 5 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
54%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
2.00x
Source Diversity
6
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
54%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
52h
Sources
6
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
54%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
52h
Avg Sentiment
+0.050
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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