The Prediction Markets

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$65.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

0 (0 bps) 94.2%

Next is 1 (25 bps) at 1.9%. The venues differ most on 0 (0 bps) (Polymarket 96.7%, Kalshi 94.2%), a 2.5-point gap.

0 (0 bps) 94.2%1 (25 bps) 1.9%2 (50 bps) 0.5%Exactly 15 cuts 0.5%Exactly 13 cuts 0.4%16 others 2.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 34 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
0 (0 bps)Arb
94.2%
Polymarket 96.7%(95.5% fair)live, just nowKalshi 94.2%(90.3% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 94.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
0 (0 bps)
Price
96.7%
Fair, margin removed
95.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
96.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$9.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 0 cuts
Price
94.2%
Fair, margin removed
90.3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
94.2¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 94.2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 96.4¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

1 (25 bps)Arb
1.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 56s agoKalshi 3.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1 (25 bps)
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 1 cut
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3.8¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

2 (50 bps)Arb
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
2 (50 bps)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2 cuts
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.7¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Exactly 15 cuts
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 15 cuts
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$364K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 13 cuts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 13 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$295K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 14 cuts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 14 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$443K
Trade this on Kalshi
4 (100 bps)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
4 (100 bps)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 4 cuts
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$576K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

3 (75 bps)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3 (75 bps)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3 cuts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$698K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

6 (150 bps)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
6 (150 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 6 cuts
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$423K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

7 (175 bps)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
7 (175 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 7 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$396K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Show 12 more outcomes
Exactly 12 cuts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 12 cuts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$282K
Trade this on Kalshi
5 (125 bps)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
5 (125 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 5 cuts
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$454K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

8 (200 bps)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
8 (200 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 8 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$301K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

9 (225 bps)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
9 (225 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 9 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$308K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

10 (250 bps)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
10 (250 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 10 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$307K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

11 (275 bps)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
11 (275 bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 11 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$260K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Exactly 16 cuts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 16 cuts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$241K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 17 cuts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 17 cuts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$524K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 18 cuts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 18 cuts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 19 cuts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 19 cuts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 20 cuts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 20 cuts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
12+ (300+ bps)
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
12+ (300+ bps)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.2M
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 1 (25 bps) on Polymarket at 1.4¢, sell on Kalshi at 3.8¢ (240 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Polymarket counts 25 bp units (a 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts); Kalshi counts cut decisions (a 50 bp cut counts as 1). Same labels pay the same only if every move is 25 bps.
  • Polymarket counts emergency moves between meetings; Kalshi counts every cut in the calendar year.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket counts 25 bp units (a 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts); Kalshi counts cut decisions (a 50 bp cut counts as 1). Same labels pay the same only if every move is 25 bps.
  • Polymarket counts emergency moves between meetings; Kalshi counts every cut in the calendar year.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0 (0 bps)
  • 1 (25 bps)
  • 2 (50 bps)

Live prices for 0 (0 bps)

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". 0 (0 bps) leads at 94.2%. Next is 1 (25 bps) at 1.9%. $65.8M has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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