Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
5.0%
$83K volume
47.0%
—
5.5%
$179K volume
27.0%
—
6.0%
$49K volume
19.0%
—
7.0%
$17K volume
16.0%
—
10.0%
$20K volume
4.7%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 10, 2026 (Ended)Updated 3m ago
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". 5.0% is leading at 47.0%. The next most likely outcome is 5.5% at 27.0%. Total volume is $348K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 10, 2026.
Leading Outcome
5.0%
47.0%
Total Vol
$348K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". 5.0% is leading at 47.0%. The next most likely outcome is 5.5% at 27.0%. Total volume is $348K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 10, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Jan 10, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
63%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.186 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
444h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
63%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
444h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Strong Showing for Job Market in Latest Report - The New York Times
The New York Times·22h ago·bullish
The March jobs report will be released on Friday. Here's what to expect - CNBC
CNBC·3d ago·neutral
Which state has the highest unemployment rate in the US.? Check list here
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
US Economic Forecast Q1 2026 - Deloitte
Deloitte·9d ago·neutral
The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. - The New York Times
The New York Times·16d ago·neutral
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