Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
5
$76K volume
55.0%
—
5-6
$83K volume
23.0%
—
9-10
$55K volume
9.6%
—
7-8
$151K volume
8.5%
—
11-12
$3K volume
5.2%
—
16
$8K volume
2.1%
—
13-14
$4K volume
2.0%
—
15-16
$24K volume
1.8%
—
Live marketEnds Dec 31, 2026 (8mo)Updated 8m ago
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?". 5 is leading at 55.0%. The next most likely outcome is 5-6 at 23.0%. Total volume is $403K across 8 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Leading Outcome
5
55.0%
Total Vol
$403K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?". 5 is leading at 55.0%. The next most likely outcome is 5-6 at 23.0%. Total volume is $403K across 8 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 5 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
20%
Median Age
380h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
20%
Median Age
380h
Avg Sentiment
-0.050
Neutral %
80%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
How long will Artemis II take to reach the moon, and what happens next? - Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera·4d ago·neutral
California rocket launch today. When, where to see SpaceX Falcon 9
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
The road to SpaceX's juggernaut IPO
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
The road to SpaceX’s juggernaut IPO - WTAQ
WTAQ·5d ago·neutral
Florida space news: NASA Artemis II rollout, SpaceX launches, moon landers
Bing News·14d ago·neutral
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