Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
June 30 (0x43c7e8)
$5.3M volume
100.0%
—
December 31
$5.5M volume
100.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jun 30, 2026 (2mo)Updated 22d ago
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Live prediction market odds for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?". June 30 (0x43c7e8) is leading at 100.0%. The next most likely outcome is December 31 at 100.0%. Total volume is $69.8M across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jun 30, 2026.
Leading Outcome
June 30 (0x43c7e8)
100.0%
Total Vol
$69.8M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?". June 30 (0x43c7e8) is leading at 100.0%. The next most likely outcome is December 31 at 100.0%. Total volume is $69.8M across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jun 30, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Jun 30, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Trump threatens Iran with ‘Hell’ over Strait of Hormuz in profane post - The Washington Post
The Washington Post·18m ago·neutral
Trump threatens ‘hell’ for Iran over Hormuz Strait as deadline approaches - Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera·34m ago·neutral
Trump warns Iran to reopen strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or face ‘hell’ - The Guardian
The Guardian·57m ago·neutral
Trump Again Threatens to Bomb Iran's Power Plants If Strait of Hormuz Not Open by Tuesday - Time Magazine
Time Magazine·1h ago·neutral
The Latest: Trump threatens to strike Iran's infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened - The Washington Post
The Washington Post·1h ago·neutral
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