Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
14.6-14.8m sq km
$3K volume
0.1%
—
15m+ sq km
$7K volume
0.1%
—
14.4-14.6m sq km
$10K volume
0.1%
—
14m sq km
$3K volume
0.1%
—
14-14.2m sq km
$2K volume
0.1%
—
14.8-15m sq km
$2K volume
0.1%
—
Live marketEnds Apr 1, 2026 (Ended)Updated 3d ago
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
Live prediction market odds for "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?". 14.6-14.8m sq km is leading at 0.1%. The next most likely outcome is 15m+ sq km at 0.1%. Total volume is $46K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 1, 2026.
Leading Outcome
14.6-14.8m sq km
0.1%
Total Vol
$46K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?". 14.6-14.8m sq km is leading at 0.1%. The next most likely outcome is 15m+ sq km at 0.1%. Total volume is $46K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 1, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Apr 1, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
61%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.162 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
61%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
61%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
250h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
61%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
250h
Avg Sentiment
-0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Sven Sundgaard: Weak Arctic ice peak signals more warming ahead
Bing News·11h ago·bearish
Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low - nationaltoday.com
nationaltoday.com·1d ago·neutral
2026 Arctic Winter Sea Ice Ties Record-Low Maximum, Signaling Thinner and Less Resilient Polar Ice Cover - Mahomet Daily
Mahomet Daily·5d ago·neutral
Arctic sea ice ties its lowest winter maximum as global heat records fall
Bing News·8d ago·neutral
CLIMATE: Winter Arctic sea ice at record low infographic - Graphic News
Graphic News·10d ago·neutral
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