Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Cristina Rivera Garza 98.0%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Oct 10, 2026 (1d)Updated 1d ago
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Live prediction market odds for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026". Cristina Rivera Garza is leading at 98.0%. The next most likely outcome is Sendhil Mullainathan at 49.5%. Total volume is $26.8M across 64 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Oct 10, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Cristina Rivera Garza
98.0%
Total Vol
$26.8M
Across 3 venues
Platforms
3
0 comparable
Best Spread
0 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Cristina Rivera Garza
$183 volume
98.0%
—
Sendhil Mullainathan
Volume n/a
49.5%
—
Emmanuel Saez
Volume n/a
49.5%
—
Thomas Piketty
Volume n/a
49.5%
—
Anne Carson
$3K volume
45.0%
—
Can Xue
$3K volume
39.0%
—
Ariel Pakes
$4K volume
22.0%
—
Person A
$87K volume
15.4%
—
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026". Cristina Rivera Garza is leading at 98.0%. The next most likely outcome is Sendhil Mullainathan at 49.5%. Total volume is $26.8M across 64 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Oct 10, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Oct 10, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Polymarket
Person A
15.4%
Person M
8.5%
Person J
6.9%
Yulia Navalnaya
5.0%
Kalshi
Cristina Rivera Garza
98.0%
Anne Carson
45.0%
Can Xue
39.0%
Mircea Cărtărescu
14.0%
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