Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
190-200m
$194K volume
67.2%
—
180-190m
$196K volume
31.1%
—
200m
$683K volume
0.3%
—
170-180m
$163K volume
0.1%
—
160-170m
$206K volume
0.1%
—
160m
$217K volume
0.1%
—
Live marketEnds Apr 6, 2026 (16h)Updated 5m ago
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
Live prediction market odds for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office". 190-200m is leading at 67.2%. The next most likely outcome is 180-190m at 31.1%. Total volume is $1.7M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 6, 2026.
Leading Outcome
190-200m
67.2%
Total Vol
$1.7M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office". 190-200m is leading at 67.2%. The next most likely outcome is 180-190m at 31.1%. Total volume is $1.7M across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 6, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Apr 6, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
52%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.025 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
<1h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
<1h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ scores biggest North American box office debut of 2026 - Screen Daily
Screen Daily·8m ago·neutral
'Super Mario Galaxy Movie' box office blasts off with $372.5 million globally - kutv.com
kutv.com·15m ago·neutral
Super Mario Galaxy Movie Earns $190M in 5 Days at U.S. Box Office - Insider Gaming
Insider Gaming·17m ago·neutral
Super Mario Galaxy Movie reviews: Rotten Tomatoes score - Travis Clark | Substack
Travis Clark | Substack·27m ago·neutral
Weekend Box Office: SUPER MARIO GALAXY Jumps to $190M 5-Day Debut - Boxoffice Pro
Boxoffice Pro·34m ago·neutral
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