Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Yes
$1.1M volume
29.5%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 31, 2027 (10mo)Updated 7m ago
US recession by end of 2026?
Live prediction market odds for "US recession by end of 2026?". Yes is leading at 29.5%. Total volume is $1.1M across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 31, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Yes
29.5%
Total Vol
$1.1M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "US recession by end of 2026?". Yes is leading at 29.5%. Total volume is $1.1M across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 31, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 31, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
bearishConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
68%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.250 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 4 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
100%
Median Age
152h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
100%
Median Age
152h
Avg Sentiment
-0.250
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Is the US headed into a recession? Here's how to prepare - USA Today
USA Today·2d ago·bearish
Is the US headed into a recession? Here's how to prepare.
Bing News·4d ago·bearish
Is the US headed for a recession? The Iran war could tip the balance. - Business Insider
Business Insider·4d ago·bearish
Is the US headed for a recession? The Iran war could tip the balance.
Bing News·4d ago·bearish
A recession is guaranteed. But when? - CNN
CNN·6d ago·bearish
Related Economics Markets
Fed decision in March?
Lead 0.1% · 25+ bps increase
Vol $518.6M
Fed decision in April?
Lead 98.3% · No change
Vol $53.4M
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Lead 85.0% · Yes
Vol $20.8M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Lead 37.5% · 0 (0 bps)
Vol $16.3M
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Lead 99.0% · Fed maintains rate
Vol $9.9M
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Lead 30.1% · 3.75%
Vol $6.0M