Home📈EconomicsWhat will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?
Live marketEnds Jul 1, 2026 (2mo)Updated 10m ago

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Live prediction market odds for "What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?". Between 10% and 19.99% is leading at 62.0%. The next most likely outcome is Between 20% and 29.99% at 17.0%. Total volume is $46K across 7 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 1, 2026.

Leading Outcome
Between 10% and 19.99%
62.0%
Total Vol
$46K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Between 10% and 19.99%
$14K volume
62.0%
Between 20% and 29.99%
$11K volume
17.0%
Between 30% and 39.99%
$9K volume
7.0%
Between 50% and 60%
$2K volume
4.0%
Below 10%
$5K volume
4.0%
Between 40% and 49.99%
$4K volume
3.0%
Above 60%
$1K volume
2.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?". Between 10% and 19.99% is leading at 62.0%. The next most likely outcome is Between 20% and 29.99% at 17.0%. Total volume is $46K across 7 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 1, 2026.

Expected resolution date: Jul 1, 2026.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.001 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
3
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
443h
Sources
3
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
443h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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