Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Q1 2026
$75K volume
13.5%
—
Q4 2025
$85K volume
9.0%
—
Q2 2025
$122K volume
4.6%
—
Q3 2025
$75K volume
2.5%
—
Q1 2025
$74K volume
1.0%
—
Q4 2024
$43K volume
0.5%
—
Live marketEnds Dec 31, 2026 (8mo)Updated 2m ago
When will the next US recession start?
Live prediction market odds for "When will the next US recession start?". Q1 2026 is leading at 13.5%. The next most likely outcome is Q4 2025 at 9.0%. Total volume is $474K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Q1 2026
13.5%
Total Vol
$474K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "When will the next US recession start?". Q1 2026 is leading at 13.5%. The next most likely outcome is Q4 2025 at 9.0%. Total volume is $474K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
bearishConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
68%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.250 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 2 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
90%
Median Age
1647h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
68%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
90%
Median Age
1647h
Avg Sentiment
-0.225
Neutral %
10%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Is the US headed into a recession? Here's how to prepare
Bing News·3d ago·bearish
The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as an Economist Issues a Recession Warning. History Says This Could Happen Next. - The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool·17d ago·bearish
A top economist warns of a 'significant' recession in 2027 as stimulus and AI investment dries up - businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com·26d ago·bearish
Recession 2026: What to Watch and How to Prepare - U.S. News Money
U.S. News Money·30d ago·bearish
“A Great Depression-scale recession is coming by the end of the decade” - CTech
CTech·67d ago·bearish
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