Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before October
$1K volume
91.0%
—
Before 2027
$1K volume
86.0%
—
Before July
$12K volume
29.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (8mo)Updated 2m ago
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Live prediction market odds for "When will xAI release Grok 5?". Before October is leading at 91.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2027 at 86.0%. Total volume is $36K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Before October
91.0%
Total Vol
$36K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "When will xAI release Grok 5?". Before October is leading at 91.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2027 at 86.0%. Total volume is $36K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
1184h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
1184h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Grok's next update will be the "Most important change" to X ever, and Elon Musk says xAI is "doubling down" on Imagine - PC Guide
PC Guide·9d ago·neutral
xAI’s Grok 4.20 Sets Honesty Record but Trails in Intelligence
Bing News·11d ago·neutral
OpenAI GPT-5.4 vs xAI Grok 4.20: Which AI Chatbot Is Best for You? - Decrypt
Decrypt·28d ago·neutral
xAI founding member describes 'grind' to get first Grok model out: 'No drugs, not even caffeine, just pure adrenaline'
Bing News·32d ago·neutral
Great news for xAI: Grok is now pretty good at answering questions about Baldur’s Gate
Bing News·44d ago·neutral
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