Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
United Kingdom
$53K volume
74.1%
—
Japan
$24K volume
54.1%
—
India
$17K volume
11.0%
—
China
$31K volume
6.0%
—
Live marketEnds Dec 31, 2027 (1y 269d)Updated 2h ago
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will have a recession before 2027?". United Kingdom is leading at 74.1%. The next most likely outcome is Japan at 54.1%. Total volume is $124K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Leading Outcome
United Kingdom
74.1%
Total Vol
$124K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will have a recession before 2027?". United Kingdom is leading at 74.1%. The next most likely outcome is Japan at 54.1%. Total volume is $124K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
52%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.032 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 3 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
30%
Median Age
230h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
30%
Median Age
230h
Avg Sentiment
-0.075
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Italy’s central bank cuts growth forecasts, lifts inflation estimates in blow to PM Meloni - WNWN-FM
WNWN-FM·1d ago·neutral
Prolonged war in Iran could tip the global economy into recession - Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics·5d ago·bearish
Iran war: forecasting the fallout, answering your questions - Capital Economics
Capital Economics·6d ago·neutral
Economic recovery likely delayed until 2027 due to Middle East conflict - report says - RNZ
RNZ·6d ago·bearish
US Economic Forecast Q1 2026 - Deloitte
Deloitte·9d ago·neutral
Related Economics Markets
Fed decision in March?
Lead 0.1% · 25+ bps increase
Vol $518.6M
Fed decision in April?
Lead 98.3% · No change
Vol $54.2M
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Lead 85.0% · Yes
Vol $21.2M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Lead 37.8% · 0 (0 bps)
Vol $16.4M
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Lead 99.0% · Fed maintains rate
Vol $9.9M
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Lead 30.9% · 3.75%
Vol $6.0M