Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
United States
$64K volume
58.0%
—
China
$36K volume
33.0%
—
Russia
$7K volume
4.0%
—
India
$5K volume
2.0%
—
European Space Agency
$4K volume
1.2%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2031 (4y 270d)Updated 14m ago
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Live prediction market odds for "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?". United States is leading at 58.0%. The next most likely outcome is China at 33.0%. Total volume is $115K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2031.
Leading Outcome
United States
58.0%
Total Vol
$115K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?". United States is leading at 58.0%. The next most likely outcome is China at 33.0%. Total volume is $115K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2031.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2031.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
124h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
124h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
'Months, not years': U.S. pushes to beat China back to moon | CBC News - CBC
CBC·2d ago·neutral
The Race for the Future of the Moon - The New York Times
The New York Times·3d ago·neutral
What is Nasa's Artemis II Moon mission and how far will astronauts go? - BBC
BBC·4d ago·neutral
China is planning to land people on the Moon — and might beat the United States to it
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
NASA launches humans to moon for first time in half-century
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
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