Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
April 30
$210K volume
26.0%
—
April 15
$323K volume
15.0%
—
Live marketEnds Apr 15, 2026 (8d)Updated 10m ago
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Live prediction market odds for "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?". April 30 is leading at 26.0%. The next most likely outcome is April 15 at 15.0%. Total volume is $533K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 15, 2026.
Leading Outcome
April 30
26.0%
Total Vol
$533K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?". April 30 is leading at 26.0%. The next most likely outcome is April 15 at 15.0%. Total volume is $533K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Apr 15, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Apr 15, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 12 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
400h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
400h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Iran’s War With Israel and the United States | Global Conflict Tracker - Council on Foreign Relations
Council on Foreign Relations·4d ago·neutral
Senate Republicans Block War Powers Limits as Mideast Crisis Widens - The New York Times
The New York Times·7d ago·neutral
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? - Polymarket
Polymarket·8d ago·neutral
War on Iran during nuclear negotiations undermines the US’s ability to talk peace around the world − and the effects won’t end when Trump leaves office - University of Denver
University of Denver·10d ago·neutral
11 times US presidents launched military operations without Congressional approval - businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com·14d ago·neutral
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