Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jan 1, 2028
$5K volume
85.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
$5K volume
45.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2028 (1y 270d)Updated just now
Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Live prediction market odds for "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?". Before Jan 1, 2028 is leading at 85.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 45.0%. Total volume is $11K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2028.
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2028
85.0%
Total Vol
$11K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?". Before Jan 1, 2028 is leading at 85.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 45.0%. Total volume is $11K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2028.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2028.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2439h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2439h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
PNG and Bougainville govts urged to plan for what follows referendum decision - RNZ
RNZ·12d ago·neutral
PNG and Bougainville govts urged to plan for what follows referendum decision
Bing News·14d ago·neutral
In the Pacific, this hidden paradise island of turquoise lagoons and restless volcanoes is set to become the world’s 194th country
Bing News·16d ago·neutral
Pacific island Bougainville rejects Chinese partner for mine that will fund independence
Bing News·66d ago·neutral
PNG Ratification Process Central as Bougainville Pushes Toward Independence - news.pngfacts.com
news.pngfacts.com·101d ago·neutral
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