Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
For tax year 2026
$7K volume
74.0%
—
Live marketEnds Dec 31, 2027 (1y 269d)Updated 7m ago
Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?
Live prediction market odds for "Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?". For tax year 2026 is leading at 74.0%. Total volume is $7K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Leading Outcome
For tax year 2026
74.0%
Total Vol
$7K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?". For tax year 2026 is leading at 74.0%. Total volume is $7K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
884h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
884h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Average tax refund up nearly 11% from a year ago, IRS data shows
Bing News·6d ago·neutral
Americans are seeing hundreds more in their tax refunds this year, IRS data shows
Bing News·11d ago·neutral
The IRS has been sending bigger tax refunds this year. Here’s by how much
Bing News·18d ago·neutral
Doing your own taxes? Experts say 'it might be the year to get professional help' - pbs.org
pbs.org·30d ago·neutral
Early filers are seeing a 10.2% hike in the average income tax refund
Bing News·36d ago·neutral
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