Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Yes
$46K volume
7.5%
—
Live marketEnds Dec 31, 2026 (8mo)Updated 7m ago
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for "Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?". Yes is leading at 7.5%. Total volume is $46K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Yes
7.5%
Total Vol
$46K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?". Yes is leading at 7.5%. Total volume is $46K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.004 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 2 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2111h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
2111h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Has the US ever assassinated a world leader before? - CNN
CNN·34d ago·neutral
Iran Says Supreme Leader Killed in U.S.-Israeli Strikes - The New York Times
The New York Times·36d ago·neutral
The Fall of a Strongman: Inside Maduro’s Last Days in Power - The New York Times
The New York Times·40d ago·bullish
3 ways US actions in Venezuela violated international law - The Conversation
The Conversation·83d ago·neutral
Trump claims he has cancelled second wave of attacks on Venezuela - The Guardian
The Guardian·87d ago·neutral
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