Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
June 30, 2026
$6K volume
44.0%
—
May 31, 2026
$33K volume
29.0%
—
April 30, 2026
$389K volume
16.0%
—
Live marketEnds Feb 6, 2026 (Ended)Updated 10m ago
Claude 5 released by…?
Live prediction market odds for "Claude 5 released by…?". June 30, 2026 is leading at 44.0%. The next most likely outcome is May 31, 2026 at 29.0%. Total volume is $2.0M across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Feb 6, 2026.
Leading Outcome
June 30, 2026
44.0%
Total Vol
$2.0M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Claude 5 released by…?". June 30, 2026 is leading at 44.0%. The next most likely outcome is May 31, 2026 at 29.0%. Total volume is $2.0M across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Feb 6, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Feb 6, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
bullishConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
67%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.239 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 6 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
270h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
270h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
GPT-5.4 launched as the most powerful model ever and I switched back to Claude in a week
Bing News·23h ago·bullish
Claude Code's source code appears to have leaked: here's what we know
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
Anthropic Claude Mythos AI World’s Newest Obsession a 10-Trillion Parameter
Bing News·9d ago·neutral
Claude Mythos released by…?
Bing News·9d ago·neutral
Anthropic Just Leaked Upcoming Model With “Unprecedented Cybersecurity Risks” in the Most Ironic Way Possible
Bing News·10d ago·neutral
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