Home📈EconomicsHow high will unemployment get in 2026?
Live marketEnds Jan 8, 2027 (9mo)Updated 13m ago

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Live prediction market odds for "How high will unemployment get in 2026?". Above 5% is leading at 35.5%. The next most likely outcome is Above 6% at 13.7%. Total volume is $516K across 10 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 8, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Above 5%
35.5%
Total Vol
$516K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Above 5%
$260K volume
35.5%
Above 6%
$145K volume
13.7%
Above 8%
$14K volume
9.0%
Above 7%
$67K volume
8.0%
Above 9%
$10K volume
5.0%
Above 15%
$2K volume
3.0%
Above 10%
$10K volume
3.0%
Above 20%
$3K volume
2.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "How high will unemployment get in 2026?". Above 5% is leading at 35.5%. The next most likely outcome is Above 6% at 13.7%. Total volume is $516K across 10 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 8, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Jan 8, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

64%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.200 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
64%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
64%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
516h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
64%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
516h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

Related Economics Markets

Explore Other Categories