Market comparison

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $810K reported volume

Observed 54s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 8, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $573K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.1% Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.5% 5.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.4% · Ask 2.6% 5.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 6.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
7.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.1% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.3% 7.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
10.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.1% Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.9% 10.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Above 4.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 14.0% Above 4.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Above 5.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.5% Above 5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Above 6.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6% Above 6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.8% Above 7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.7% Above 8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.4% Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.4% Above 9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.5% Above 10% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.4% Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.9% Above 12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 5.3% Above 15% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 17% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.3% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.3% Above 17% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.2% Bid 0.2% · Ask 5.3% Above 20% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.5%

5.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 2.6%

5.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

6.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

7.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.3%

7.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

10.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.9%

10.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

Above 4.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 14.0%

Above 4.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Above 5.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.5%

Above 5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above 6.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.7%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6%

Above 6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.8%

Above 7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.7%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.7%

Above 8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.4%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.4%

Above 9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.3%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 3.5%

Above 10%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.4%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.9%

Above 12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 5.3%

Above 15%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 17%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.3%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.3%

Above 17%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.2%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 5.3%

Above 20%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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