Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
6,300 or below
$60K volume
79.0%
—
6,200 or below
$45K volume
75.0%
—
6,100 or below
$29K volume
71.2%
—
6,000 or below
$83K volume
69.0%
—
5,900 or below
$157K volume
61.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (9mo)Updated 7m ago
How low will the S&P get this year?
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the S&P get this year?". 6,300 or below is leading at 79.0%. The next most likely outcome is 6,200 or below at 75.0%. Total volume is $462K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
6,300 or below
79.0%
Total Vol
$462K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the S&P get this year?". 6,300 or below is leading at 79.0%. The next most likely outcome is 6,200 or below at 75.0%. Total volume is $462K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
708h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
708h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
3 Best S&P 500 Index Funds to Buy in 2026 - fool.com
fool.com·5d ago·neutral
S&P 500 will return just 3% a year for the next decade, top strategist warns - Fortune
Fortune·19d ago·neutral
Here's how far the stock market could drop before the bull rally resumes, according to Morgan Stanley's CIO - Business Insider
Business Insider·24d ago·neutral
Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 (5-year to 150-year averages) - Trade That Swing
Trade That Swing·26d ago·neutral
Get Ready For A Long War And A Much Lower S&P 500 (SP500) - Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha·27d ago·neutral
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