Market comparison

How low will the S&P get this year?

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $934K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

27 outcomes · $322K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for How low will the S&P get this year?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
5,900 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.4% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.4% 5,900 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,000 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.4% Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4% 6,000 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,100 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.7% Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.7% 6,100 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,200 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.4% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4% 6,200 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,300 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.1% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.8% 6,300 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,400 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0% 6,400 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,500 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,500 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
6,600 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% 6,600 or below · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Below 3.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.4% Bid 4.3% · Ask 6.5% Below 3.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 2.8% · Ask 4.9% Below 4.00% Open Polymarket ↗ 4.3% Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.5% Below 4.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 3.6% · Ask 4.5% Below 4.10% Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Below 4.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.3% Bid 2.1% · Ask 4.4% Below 4.20% Open Polymarket ↗ 15.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 28.0% Below 4.20% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 4.2% · Ask 5.5% Below 4.25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.1% Bid 10.1% · Ask 18.0% Below 4.30% Open Polymarket ↗ 24.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Below 4.30% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Below 4.35% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0% Below 4.40% Open Polymarket ↗ 40.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 59.0% Below 4.40% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0% Below 4.45% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0% Below 4.50% Open Polymarket ↗ 50.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 75.0% Below 4.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 2.1% · Ask 3.9% Below 4.60% Open Polymarket ↗ 77.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 85.0% Below 4.60% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.70% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Below 4.70% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.9% Bid 8.5% · Ask 15.4% Below 4.80% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Below 4.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 4.95% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0% Below 4.95% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.00% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0% Below 5.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.05% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 29.0% Below 5.05% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0% Below 5.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0% Below 5.15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Below 5.20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 60.0% Below 5.20% Open Polymarket ↗	—

5,900 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.4%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.4%

5,900 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,000 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 8.4%

6,000 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,100 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.7%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 6.7%

6,100 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,200 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.4%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.4%

6,200 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,300 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.8%

6,300 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,400 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 100.0%

6,400 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,500 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,500 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

6,600 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

6,600 or below · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Below 3.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 4.3% · Ask 6.5%

Below 3.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 2.8% · Ask 4.9%

Below 4.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

4.3%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.5%

Below 4.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 3.6% · Ask 4.5%

Below 4.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Below 4.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 4.4%

Below 4.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

15.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 28.0%

Below 4.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 5.5%

Below 4.25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.1%

Bid 10.1% · Ask 18.0%

Below 4.30%

Open Polymarket ↗

24.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Below 4.30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Below 4.35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0%

Below 4.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

40.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 59.0%

Below 4.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0%

Below 4.45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0%

Below 4.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

50.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 75.0%

Below 4.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 3.9%

Below 4.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

77.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 85.0%

Below 4.60%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.70%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Below 4.70% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.9%

Bid 8.5% · Ask 15.4%

Below 4.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0%

Below 4.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 4.95%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0%

Below 4.95%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.00%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0%

Below 5.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.05%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 29.0%

Below 5.05%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 41.0%

Below 5.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 44.0%

Below 5.15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Below 5.20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 60.0%

Below 5.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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