Home📈EconomicsNumber of rate cuts in 2026?
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (9mo)Updated 6m ago

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Live prediction market odds for "Number of rate cuts in 2026?". Exactly 0 cuts is leading at 40.3%. The next most likely outcome is Exactly 1 cut at 23.0%. Total volume is $2.9M across 21 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Exactly 0 cuts
40.3%
Total Vol
$2.9M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Exactly 0 cuts
$675K volume
40.3%
Exactly 1 cut
$236K volume
23.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
$265K volume
16.2%
Exactly 3 cuts
$203K volume
9.3%
Exactly 4 cuts
$182K volume
4.6%
Exactly 5 cuts
$136K volume
2.2%
Exactly 6 cuts
$152K volume
1.7%
Exactly 8 cuts
$145K volume
1.1%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "Number of rate cuts in 2026?". Exactly 0 cuts is leading at 40.3%. The next most likely outcome is Exactly 1 cut at 23.0%. Total volume is $2.9M across 21 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

bearish

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

64%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.202 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
64%
Label
bearish
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
64%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
60%
Median Age
156h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
64%
Label
bearish
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
60%
Median Age
156h
Avg Sentiment
-0.150
Neutral %
40%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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