Market comparison

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

2 venues · 22 outcome rows · 12 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $54.7M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

21 outcomes · $10.8M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Polymarket counts 25 bp units (a 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts); Kalshi counts cut decisions (a 50 bp cut counts as 1). Same labels pay the same only if every move is 25 bps.
Polymarket counts emergency moves between meetings; Kalshi counts every cut in the calendar year.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
0 (0 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	96.9% Bid 96.8% · Ask 97.0% 0 (0 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	94.4% Bid 94.4% · Ask 94.5% Exactly 0 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
1 (25 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	1.1% Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.4% 1 (25 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	2.3% Bid 2.2% · Ask 2.3% Exactly 1 cut Open Kalshi ↗	1.3 pp
2 (50 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% 2 (50 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.9% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9% Exactly 2 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
3 (75 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3% 3 (75 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% Exactly 3 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp
4 (100 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% 4 (100 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.9% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9% Exactly 4 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
5 (125 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 5 (125 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3% Exactly 5 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
6 (150 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% 6 (150 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4% Exactly 6 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
7 (175 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% 7 (175 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.2% Exactly 7 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
8 (200 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 8 (200 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 8 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
9 (225 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 9 (225 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 9 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
10 (250 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 10 (250 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 10 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
11 (275 bps) Resolution rules differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 11 (275 bps) Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 11 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
12+ (300+ bps) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 12+ (300+ bps) Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Exactly 12 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 12 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 13 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 13 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 14 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 14 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 15 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 15 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 16 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 16 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 17 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 17 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 18 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 18 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 19 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 19 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Exactly 20 cuts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Exactly 20 cuts Open Kalshi ↗	—

0 (0 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

96.9%

Bid 96.8% · Ask 97.0%

0 (0 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

94.4%

Bid 94.4% · Ask 94.5%

Exactly 0 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

1 (25 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.4%

1 (25 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.3%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 2.3%

Exactly 1 cut

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

2 (50 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

2 (50 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9%

Exactly 2 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

3 (75 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.3%

3 (75 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4%

Exactly 3 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

4 (100 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

4 (100 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9%

Exactly 4 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

5 (125 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

5 (125 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.3%

Exactly 5 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

6 (150 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

6 (150 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.4%

Exactly 6 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

7 (175 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

7 (175 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.2%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.2%

Exactly 7 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

8 (200 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

8 (200 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 8 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

9 (225 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

9 (225 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 9 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

10 (250 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

10 (250 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 10 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

11 (275 bps)

Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

11 (275 bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 11 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

12+ (300+ bps)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

12+ (300+ bps)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Exactly 12 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 12 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 13 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 13 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 14 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 14 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 15 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 15 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 16 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 16 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 17 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 17 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 18 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 18 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 19 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 19 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Exactly 20 cuts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Exactly 20 cuts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets