Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before 2040
$1K volume
64.0%
—
Before 2035
$5K volume
53.0%
—
Before 2030
$7K volume
33.1%
—
Before 2027
$12K volume
8.7%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2040 (13y 272d)Updated 8m ago
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Live prediction market odds for "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?". Before 2040 is leading at 64.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2035 at 53.0%. Total volume is $25K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2040.
Leading Outcome
Before 2040
64.0%
Total Vol
$25K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?". Before 2040 is leading at 64.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2035 at 53.0%. Total volume is $25K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2040.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2040.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
3
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
174h
Sources
3
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
174h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
New Advances Bring the Era of Quantum Computers Closer Than Ever
Bing News·3d ago·neutral
Useful quantum computers could be built with as few as 10,000 qubits, team finds
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
Researchers say quantum computers could, in theory, be ready by 2030
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
Caltech Team Finds Useful Quantum Computers Could Be Built with as Few as 10,000 Qubits - Caltech
Caltech·5d ago·neutral
Silicon quantum computer performs logical operations for the first time
Bing News·7d ago·neutral
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